We measured months of supply and absorption for Brickell condos priced at $1 million and up over a full twelve months, split by bedroom count. Then we added back the 133 listings that expired unsold along the way. Every bedroom tier is a buyer’s market. The question is how deep, and which direction it’s moving.
How Long Would It Take to Sell Every $1M+ Condo in Brickell? Two Years. Count the Listings That Gave Up, and It’s Closer to Three.
We measured months of supply and absorption for Brickell condos priced at $1 million and up over a full twelve months, split by bedroom count. Then we added back the 133 listings that expired unsold along the way. Every bedroom tier is a buyer’s market. The question is how deep, and which direction it’s moving.
1 Bedroom
252months of supply 1 sale in 12 months Too thin to call2 Bedroom
27.3months of supply 39 mo with expireds Deep buyer’s market3 Bedroom
16.4months of supply 22 mo with expireds Buyer’s market4+ Bedroom
28.4months of supply 32 mo with expireds Buyer’s marketBrickell’s $1M+ condo market is not short of anything except buyers. As of September 15, 2026, there were 369 condos actively listed at $1 million or more across the neighborhood. Over the twelve months from September 2025 through August 2026, 189 of them closed: just under 16 a month. Divide one by the other and you get 23.4 months of supply: two years to sell what’s already listed, if nothing new came to market.
That headline hides a lot. A two-bedroom at $1.25 million and a four-bedroom at $3.9 million are not competing for the same buyer, and they aren’t moving at the same speed. So we split the market by bedroom count. And because a market where listings quietly expire looks healthier on paper than it is, we also counted every listing that left the market unsold during the same twelve months. That second number is the more honest one.
This is the first edition of a monthly series. Each update re-pulls a full trailing twelve months, so every reading is comparable to the last one and the trend builds over time.
First, what these numbers mean
Two gauges of the same thing, one measured in time and the other in speed, plus a third that most reports leave out.
Months of supply asks: if no new condos were listed starting today, how long would it take to sell everything currently for sale at the recent pace? Absorption rate flips it: what share of the standing inventory sells in a typical month? A high months-of-supply figure and a low absorption rate both describe a slow market that favors buyers.
Shadow supply is the part most reports skip. When a listing expires unsold, it disappears from “active inventory,” and the market looks tighter than it is. But the owner still wants to sell. Many will relist, often at a lower price. Adding those expired listings back to the active count shows how much unsold intent is really sitting behind the visible number.
Momentum is why we measure two paces. The twelve-month pace smooths out Brickell’s seasonality and is the headline. The last-three-month pace shows where the market is heading right now: when supply on the three-month pace is lower than on the twelve-month pace, the market is tightening; when it’s higher, it’s loosening.
The math
Months of supply = active listings ÷ (condos sold in 12 months ÷ 12)
Absorption rate = condos sold per month ÷ active listings
Supply incl. expireds = (active + expired in the window) ÷ condos sold per month
The reading convention is consistent across the industry. Housing economists at the National Association of Home Builders put a balanced market at five to six months of supply; ShowingTime, which powers most MLS market reports, uses four to six months and, like this analysis, measures pace on a rolling twelve months to strip out seasonality. By either yardstick, Brickell’s $1M+ market is roughly four times past balanced.
The headline chart
Months of supply by bedroom count. The solid bar is what the MLS shows today; the hatched extension is what appears once expired listings are counted.
Months of supply — Brickell condos, $1M+
Active listings ÷ the Sep 2025–Aug 2026 monthly sales pace. Shaded zone = the conventional 4–6 month balanced range. The 1-bedroom bar is clipped: only one $1M+ one-bedroom closed in twelve months, so its figure is a warning, not a measurement.
Three things stand out. First, no bedroom tier is anywhere near balanced. Second, the tier with the most sales, three-bedrooms at 90 closings, is also the tier that clears fastest, at 16.4 months. Third, two-bedrooms are the problem segment: 180 active listings against 6.6 sales a month, and by far the biggest jump once expireds are added, because 77 two-bedrooms expired unsold in the same year that 79 sold.
Worked example — the two-bedroom number
180 two-bedroom condos at $1M+ are actively for sale.
79 closed over the twelve-month window → 6.6 sales per month.
180 ÷ 6.6 = 27.3 months of supply. Flip it: 6.6 ÷ 180 = 3.7% absorbed per month.
Add the 77 two-bedrooms that expired unsold in the same window: (180 + 77) ÷ 6.6 = 39 months.
Which way is it moving?
The same inventory measured against the last three months of sales instead of the last twelve.
Summer 2026 ran slightly ahead of the year as a whole: 50 closings in June through August, or 16.7 a month against the twelve-month average of 15.75. On that pace, overall supply is 22.1 months rather than 23.4. That is a modest tightening, not a turn. The tiers diverge, though. Three-bedrooms are improving (25 sales in the quarter, supply down to 14.8 months on the recent pace). Two-bedrooms improved a little (27.3 to 25.7). Four-plus bedrooms went the other way: only four sales in the quarter, pushing supply on the recent pace to nearly 34 months.
Months of supply: twelve-month pace vs. last-three-month pace
Same active inventory, two different sales paces. Teal = tightening since the yearly average; coral = loosening. One-bedrooms had no sales in the quarter and are omitted.
Each bedroom count, on its own terms
The same pipeline for each tier: active → under contract → closed, with the listings that expired or were withdrawn shown alongside.
1-Bedroom Condos
One closing in twelve months; the number is a warning, not a measurement
of supply
2-Bedroom Condos
The biggest segment by volume, the slowest to clear, and half of its listings expire
of supply
3-Bedroom Condos
Highest absorption in the $1M+ market and getting faster, but still far from balanced
of supply
4+ Bedroom Condos
Fewer than two sales a month against a wall of high-ask inventory, and slowing
of supply
The listings that gave up
For every ten $1M+ condos that sold in Brickell over the past year, seven more expired unsold.
Between September 2025 and August 2026, 189 condos closed and 133 expired. That is not a rounding error in the supply picture: four in ten listings that reached a conclusion in the window ended without a sale. And the timing tells its own story. Expirations peaked from November through February (13 to 17 a month) while closings held flat at 10 to 15. Then closings surged in March and April (22 and 24) as the winter season’s buyers went to contract, and expirations eased. Brickell’s luxury market runs on a seasonal clock, and listings that miss the season are the ones that lapse.
Closed sales vs. expired listings, by month
Expirations are dated from each listing’s list date plus its days on market.
The failure rate is not evenly distributed. Two-bedrooms fail most often: 49% of the two-bedroom listings that concluded in the window expired rather than sold, essentially a coin flip. Three-bedrooms fared better at 33%. Four-plus-bedroom listings expire less often, at 24%, but that is partly because trophy sellers tend to withdraw rather than let a listing lapse; twenty three-bedroom and four four-plus-bedroom listings were withdrawn over the year.
Share of concluded listings that expired unsold
Expired ÷ (expired + closed) for the Sep 2025–Aug 2026 window, by bedroom count. Withdrawn listings are not included in either count.
Why they expired: the ask was above where the market clears
The gap between what buyers paid, what expired sellers asked, and what today’s active sellers are asking.
Line up three medians per bedroom tier and a pattern emerges. Closed sales set the floor. Expired listings were priced above it. And in the two- and three-bedroom tiers, which carry most of the volume, today’s active listings are priced higher still. Across all $1M+ condos, buyers paid a median $883 per square foot over the year; the listings that expired had asked $944; the listings sitting on the market today are asking $1,085, or 23% above where sales are actually happening.
Price per square foot: sold vs. expired vs. asking
Medians by bedroom count. Closed = sale price per SF, Sep 2025–Aug 2026. Expired = list price per SF at expiration. Active = current list price per SF.
The three-bedroom tier tells the story most cleanly. Buyers paid a median $843/SF. The three-bedrooms that expired had asked $1,008/SF, about 20% more, and didn’t find a taker. Today’s active three-bedrooms are asking $1,053/SF, 25% above the closed median and above the level that already failed. Some of that gap is product mix (newer, higher-floor, and pre-construction inventory lists at a premium), but not all of it. If asking prices don’t move toward the closed line, next year’s expiration count will look a lot like this year’s.
The four-plus-bedroom gap is the widest on the chart, with active asks near $1,834/SF against closed sales at $1,143/SF. Treat that with care: with 19 sales and six expireds, a few penthouse listings swing the median. The direction is real; the magnitude is not precise.
Inventory is aging
How long today’s active listings have already been waiting.
A final tell: the median active $1M+ listing in Brickell has been on the market 124 days, and 64% have been listed for 90 days or more. A third have passed the 180-day mark. The listings that closed over the year took a median 87 days to go under contract, so the typical active listing has already outlasted the typical successful one by more than a month.
Current active inventory by time on market
Share of the 369 active $1M+ listings in each days-on-market band, as of September 15, 2026.
What this means for you
If you’re selling
- Two-bedroom: you are in the most crowded tier, with 180 competitors and a 49% expiration rate. Price to the closed median, not to the active asks around you; those asks are what the expired listings looked like a year ago.
- Three-bedroom: the most liquid tier and the one gaining speed, with a sale every four days. Well-priced units at or near $843/SF are the ones closing. Listings above $1,000/SF are, on the evidence, the ones expiring.
- Four-plus bedroom: fewer than two sales a month and slowing this summer. Expect 100+ days and a 94% sale-to-list on the units that do trade. If you can’t wait, the price has to lead.
- Any tier: list into the season. Closings peak March and April; expirations peak November through February. A listing that goes live in October without a sharp price is the one that lapses in January.
If you’re buying
- Two-bedroom: the deepest leverage in Brickell right now: 27 months of visible supply, 39 with shadow supply, and half of listings failing to sell. Comparable units are plentiful, so anchor to closed $/SF and let the seller come to you.
- Three-bedroom: still a buyer’s market, but it is tightening and the good units move. Sale-to-list at 93.6% means a 6% discount from ask is normal, not aggressive.
- Four-plus bedroom: the widest ask-to-close gap on the chart and the tier that slowed most this summer. Ignore list price entirely and build your offer from closed comps per square foot.
- Watch the expireds: 133 listings expired in the past year, and many of those owners haven’t relisted. A recently expired listing is a motivated seller without a public price. That is where off-market opportunity lives.
